Yamaha out of the arranger business?

[guitpic1]

If I were Yamaha, I wouldn't dabble in the arranger business.

For one thing, arrangers seem to be more popular in Europe, less so in the U.S...and, it appears,  all arrangers are a small part of the overall keyboard market.

If anything, the Montage could take on extra features..with some sort of VR(virtual arranger).

Thoughts?

[mikf]

'Arranger keyboard' has always seemed an odd market delineation to me. I am not sure how it started, or how it is defined, but the term auto accompaniment keyboard seems a better description and many keyboards fall into this category, sharing essentially the same basic technology, for home organs, through extensive clavinova types, high end portables all the way down to cheap toys. Collectively this is a decent market, and the same technology is leveraged, so seems if you have or are developing this technology, to play in a number of these sub segments including what we currently call 'arrangers'.     There may indeed be some merging of keyboard types, or general change, but essentially i don't see Yamaha just dropping out. They are a major player, and leader in development.
Mike

[browzer]

This is the reason I recently purchased a Tyros 5 (with an option to upgrade to Genos), I kind of like the Tyros arranger, it suits me down to the ground, if they move to far away in another direction by merging technologies with other units I may just hedge my bets and stay with the Tyros 5 for the moment.

Ronnie

[DrakeM]

Well, if they drop the PSR arranger please let us all know here at the forum. I will purchase two more S970 keyboards as they ought to last me the rest of my life time.

[jtrue]

I have often thought that the instruments were called "arranger" keyboards because musical arrangers were the originally intended market. With one of these instruments an arranger can get a pretty good idea of what his/her creation will sound like, whether played by a trio or a concert orchestra, without going the expense of hiring and rehearsing live musicians at least during the early and middle stages of development. Styles would be used at first so the treble portions of the arrangement could be perfected. At a later stage the styles would be replaced with the arranger's customized accompaniment so that, in the end, the entire output is what the arranger developed and will sound as if played by an aggregation of musicians.

The original marketing plan went awry when single performers discovered that the instruments were ideally suited for one-man-band applications. Since there were more single performers than music arrangers the instruments ended up selling well anyway. I don't know the language but wonder if a correct translation of the instrument name in Japanese should be "keyboard for arranging" rather than "arranger keyboard."

   j.

[Joe H]

I think it's a failing by Yamaha in how it markets the arranger.    A LOT of $400.00 arrangers are sold in the USA. 

The arranger is not a toy.  Particularly the newest PSR and of coarse the Tyros.  Having just purchased a Motif Rack XS, I can say the sound quality of the Motif is the same as the PSR S970... and the Tyros is better by far... it's the best sounding keyboard Yamaha makes AND the most expensive.  But I suppose the new Montage has matched the sound quality of the Tyros, aside from the motion sequencer and Super Knob stuff... which if not used thoughtfully can become just a lot of noise and sound effects.. which may or may not be considered music by some people here. 

Yamaha has made no effort to explain the architecture of the arranger or how the musician can use the arranger to compose music.  These are complicated machines and yet Yamaha offer no help... we are on our own!  Yamaha likes to hype the Motif (and now the Montage) to the hilt.  The arranger and Motif are equal to my way of thinking... they just operate differently and each has it's strengths and weaknesses.

I think a NEW kind of arranger is coming... but it could be just wishful thinking on my part.   We will know sooner or later.  We've talked a lot about the mystery GENOS.  Our engineer friend pj as noted that Yamaha left a lot of room in the S970 design for future expansion, and Yamaha continues to apply for new patents which are costly.  They are up to something... and I'm sure most of us will like it... once "IT" hits the streets.



Joe H

[frankmusik]

Yamaha Tyros ist the most important and biggest seller in ALL Yamaha instruments... So Yamaha has no choice to modify and optimize the keyboard line....

In Europe there are a lot more tyros player than all motif/montage player ever will be....

Greetings from Germany
Frank excited for the "next"

[soundphase]

Frank excited for the "next"

Hi Frank

Do you already know the "next" ? 

Soundphase

[EileenL]

It is the same in the UK,
  Arrangers are used far more than work stations. Lots of us go out gigging with just Tyros alone and they love it.

[pjd]

Source: NAMM Global Report 2015

Sales Statistics for 2014, USA market

    Category                       Units            Retail value
    -----------------------------  ---------------  -------------
    Acoustic guitars               1,499,000 units  $678,000,000
    Electric guitars               1,132,000 units  $506,000,000
    Digital pianos                   135,000 units  $165,000,000
    Keyboard synthesizers             81,000 units  $104,000,000
    Controller keyboards             160,000 units  $ 32,000,000
    Portable keyboards under $199    656,000 units  $ 64,000,000
    Portable keyboards over $199     350,000 units  $123,000,000
    Total portable keyboards       1,006,000 units  $187,000,000

Music technology blog: http://sandsoftwaresound.net/

[Joe H]

Source: NAMM Global Report 2015

Sales Statistics for 2014, USA market

    Category                       Units            Retail value
    -----------------------------  ---------------  -------------
    Acoustic guitars               1,499,000 units  $678,000,000
    Electric guitars               1,132,000 units  $506,000,000
    Digital pianos                   135,000 units  $165,000,000
    Keyboard synthesizers             81,000 units  $104,000,000
    Controller keyboards             160,000 units  $ 32,000,000
    Portable keyboards under $199    656,000 units  $ 64,000,000
    Portable keyboards over $199     350,000 units  $123,000,000
    Total portable keyboards       1,006,000 units  $187,000,000

Music technology blog: http://sandsoftwaresound.net/

Nothing like getting the facts... though the table above does not reflect individual and regional markets.  Where I live low-end gear sells very well because there is a lot of low income folk.

Joe H

[DrakeM]

wow .. looks like there is no demand for Controller keyboards or Keyboard synthesizers from those stats.

[browzer]

Source: NAMM Global Report 2015

Sales Statistics for 2014, USA market

    Category                       Units            Retail value
    -----------------------------  ---------------  -------------
    Portable keyboards under $199    656,000 units  $ 64,000,000
    Portable keyboards over $199     350,000 units  $123,000,000

Almost half of the units shifted but double the retail value, how do these figures equate with regards to profit?

Ronnie

[SeaGtGruff]

    Portable keyboards under $199    656,000 units  $ 64,000,000
    Portable keyboards over $199     350,000 units  $123,000,000
    Total portable keyboards       1,006,000 units  $187,000,000

I wish they had broken the sales down by more than just "under $199" and "over $199," because surely there are a lot more models in the "over $199" category than in the "under $199"-- and much greater variation in their prices, which makes the following averages kind of useless. Also, why have the arrangers and workstations been lumped in with the portables, if Yamaha's web site splits them up into separate categories? And what are the lines that determine whether a particular model gets counted as a "digital piano" or a "portable keyboard"?

Anyway, here are the averages:

    Portable keyboards under $199    656,000 units  $ 64,000,000     (ca. $ 97.56 per unit)
    Portable keyboards over $199     350,000 units  $123,000,000     (ca. $351.43 per unit)
    Total portable keyboards       1,006,000 units  $187,000,000     (ca. $185.88 per unit)

The average for the "under $199" category looks about right, because if we put an ass before you and me, and assume that the sales were evenly distributed between models of different prices, and if the range of prices is from $1 to $199, then the average price should be $100. The fact that the average is actually a little below this seems to indicate that models under $99 slightly outsell models over $99-- although that also depends heavily on the actual prices, because if we assume that there are only two models in this category, the PSR-E2xx and the PSR-E3xx (which is surely not true), then the PSR-E2xx is selling like hotcakes whereas the PSR-E3xx isn't moving at all.

Calculating in reverse with the same assumption of evenly-distributed sales, if the models in the "over $199" category have an average unit price of about $350, and if the price range is from $200 to whatever, then "whatever" works out to be just $500! That's obviously wrong, since there are quite a few models in the "over $499" category, not to mention "over $999." So clearly the sales are heavily skewed toward the "under $499" category, and are all but non-existent in the "over $499" category-- in which case, Yamaha would be well-advised to cease all development and production related to the PSR-S and Tyros lines!

[pjd]

Hi --

Folks, this is marketing. Abandon hope all ye who enter here. :-)

I think you're looking for precision when you're probably not going to get it. These numbers are reported to the NAMM by retailers, not manufacturers. This leaves the definition of each product category pretty much up for grabs -- possibly defined in the eyes of a guitar player, not a keyboard-oriented musician.

NAMM is a USA-based association which reflects the biases of merchants in the USA. Here are a two quotes about "portable keyboards" from earlier reports:

"The tonal quality and feature set of these 'entry-level' products rival 'pro' keyboards of a decade ago, and they have eroded synth sales. They can often be found on stage in performing venues. Lower-priced keyboards, those retailing for less than $199, are sold almost exclusively through a mass distribution channel. With an average retail selling price of $92, they have almost become impulse purchases."

"Tonal quality is a byproduct of processor speed and memory: more processing and memory make for more complex and nuanced sounds. The collapsing prices of memory and processing power have made it possible to equip what were formerly considered 'cheap' musical toys with tremendous tone quality and features. All evidence suggests that these comparatively low-cost products have taken sales from higher-end digital pianos, keyboard synthesizers, and even acoustic pianos."

Mass distribution channels include big box stores like Walmart, Target, etc.

Michael, I think you're right. It is a challenge for Yamaha, Korg, Roland, and so forth to actually make money from arranger keyboards. The margin on what we regard as entry-level models, especially, is razor thin. Overall, that's why it's unreasonable to expect new revolutionary instruments with every spin.

Interesting discussion, folks. Thanks for all of your comments!

-- pj

[SeaGtGruff]

Wait, so those figures represented all manufacturers, not just Yamaha? Oh, okay, I had misunderstood! But it still seems like the average person who's looking for a portable keyboard to buy is willing or able to spend no more than $500, and preferably a good bit less than that. I can certainly identify with that, so I'm not complaining, mind you-- just wondering why anyone like Yamaha would bother creating a powerhouse like the Tyros or Montage if hardly anyone's willing to buy it.

[Joe H]

NAMM is a USA-based association which reflects the biases of merchants in the USA...

So... there is really not much to discuss regarding those sales figures since Yamaha is selling world wide, and the US market alone has little baring on the whole enchilada.  The US is just finger-food so to speak.



Joe H

[Jeff Hollande]

Hi,

There is absolutely no reason why Yamaha should kill a winning horse. Competition would be very happy if Yamaha did, I guess.
It would be different if the arranger keyboard market does not bring them any profit which is hard to believe.

For more than 15 years Yamaha are the world leader. That's a fact.

Jeff

[pjd]

Hi --

I wouldn't quite write off the USA market. The USA has the highest music sales per capita: $22.05 and the largest sales share for all instruments:

Global market sales share (all instruments)

  U.S.        40.6%
  Japan       13.0%
  China        7.5%
  Germany      5.8%
  Canada       4.4%
  France       4.3%
  U.K.         3.2%
  Italy        2.3%
  Australia    2.2%
  Brazil       1.7%
  S.Korea      1.7%
  Russia       1.3%
  Mexico       1.1%
  Netherlands  1.1%

Portable keyboard export figures are also interesting:

  Country     Units      Value (USD)
  ----------  ---------  -----------
  China       4,800,000  350,000,000
  Japan         100,000   23,000,000

There are a few other exporters (e.g., France), but their share is quite small. Japan moved a very significant part of electronic keyboard production off-shore beginning in 2009.

Here are China's top five export destinations for electronic keyboards:

  Country      Units      Value (USD)
  -----------  ---------  -----------
  U.S.         1,100,000  89,000,000
  Germany        580,000  45,000,000
  Japan          390,000  37,000,000
  Hong Kong      410,000  28,000,000
  U.K.           200,000  15,000,000

All of these figures are estimated, so please beware.

Trying to tease results or conclusions out of the NAMM report is crazy difficult due to uneven (many countries missing) and/or inconsistent reporting.

All the best -- pj

P.S. You're right, Michael. That's all manufacturers. We'd all love to know the breakdown by competitor. :-)

P.P.S. Before everybody breaks out their calculators, please remember that these are all estimates based on incomplete data. So, there are going to be inconsistencies. 

[Joe H]

While interesting.... those numbers still don't tell us a lot without a breakdown of the kind of instrument we are talking about... TOTL PSRs  and Tyros arrangers. 

And what about those synth sales in comparison?   I don't think you will find those stats.

Joe H   

[pjd]

Well, I guess we can take the matter up with the National Association of Music Merchants.     

Honest to goodness, Joe, I wish there were better figures. 

Have a good weekend all!

-- pj

[EileenL]

Over here the low end priced Keyboards say from £200 onwards are usually bought by schools or other teaching places.
  They are in many ways very limited and would not work for most who want to gig. Ideal to get children interested though but then, as all of us they want to move onto something that gives them more.
   Tyros 5 has sold very well in the UK especially the 76 note version.

[SeaGtGruff]

What makes you think that arrangers aren't popular in the USA? I'd classify low-end portable keyboards as arrangers if they have arranger features-- which I suppose means auto-accompaniment.

The impression I get from reading various keyboard forums is that most people who are "serious" about playing the keyboard are far more likely to prefer a higher-end model over a lower-end model.

If the USA's keyboard marketplace seems to be dominated by people buying low-end portable arrangers instead of high-end ones, perhaps it's a matter of population size, coupled with how much of the population falls into one or another class/financial bracket, as well as how many people are "serious" about playing the keyboard versus only casually interested?

[Joe H]

Can anyone however explain to me, how arrangers are popular everywhere, except in the US?

Well it seems to me this is only speculation.  Where is the data to support that assertion?  I WILL say that there are a lot of deluded wannabes in the USA who think if they buy a Motif they are going to be big stars... just because they bought a Motif (like the big guys).  Reading the forums related to Motif... my observation is that most Motif owners know nothing about nothing related to MIDI, sound production, or music production.  So my point is... they would be better off with a PSR S970 or Tyros.

The truth of the matter is that very few people can or will exercise the deep editing capabilities of a synth like the Motif or Montage. (like people who do it for a living can and do)  It's fantasy to think the average musician will use that stuff, yet Yamaha invests heavily in tech support for these synths, and neglects support for arranger owners where there is true value and great potential for professional level music production capabilities with the mid range and high end arrangers.

Joe H

[Joe H]

An example of what I'm talking about is over here:  http://www.psrtutorial.com/forum/index.php/topic,38195.msg293093.html#msg293093

Yamaha needs to get serious about implementing real-time control features in a $2000.00 arranger keyboard.  The code is already written... just port it over to the arranger.  A brand new Motif Rack XS is about $1100.00 USD.  So why don't we get the same capability in a $2000.00 USD arranger?

Yamaha offers both a forum and blog for their "synths"... so how come there is not this kind of support for arrangers by Yamaha?

Joe H

[SeaGtGruff]

As far as whether or not people who buy a particular synth or keyboard will ever take the time to learn about MIDI and/or how to do deep editing of the keyboard's sounds, I don't necessarily think it's a professional-versus-nonprofessional thing. I've heard of professionals (Keith Emerson comes to mind) who borrowed or bought a Moog Modular or other powerful synth and had someone else program patches on it for them. Being a skilled keyboardist and being a skilled sound designer are two different things.

[Joe H]

When creating content for arrangers there is huge influence from yamaha UK and yamaha Germany
So this leaves us with one question... is the undermarketing ... or because yamaha thinks the customers dont want arrangers or arranger features...

I think you and I believe the "content" is still not what the younger generation is wanting.  Twenty somethings do not want to play 60s, 70s, and 80s, music and Yamaha is at least 15 years behind on content.  They should make the early rock 'n roll styles available for free on the internet and start loading arranger keyboards with 90s and up to present music styles.  And I don't just mean rock 'n roll.

Someone at Yamaha should be watching the new artists on Youtube and be listeniong to Pandora Radio on the Internet.  They got some catching up to do.  To sell more mid and high-end arrangers to the next generation, they (the keyboards) have got to come with contemporary music ready to play right out of the box.



Joe H

[mikf]

I have homes in both UK and USA and split my time about 50% and I do see a difference between the countries re home organs and arrangers. There has been a robust tradition of mainly middle aged home organ enthusiasts in UK, with clubs and societies for many, many years. The high end arranger market is the continuation of that, and in fact probably helped it grow, because as much as many of you think that arrangers are expensive, they are very low cost compared to the home organs of the 70s. I am not saying that this does not exist at all in the USA, just that relative to population, it seems much more popular in the UK, and maybe a few other countries. I am not talking here about low cost 'toys' which are bought in huge numbers everywhere, but just like home gym equipment, remain largely unused. This is about people who seriously want to learn to play a decent keyboard musical instrument, and are prepared to part with real money for it.
I am sure that the USA represents a decent slice of the arranger market in absolute terms because the country is so big, but per head of population, the market of home organ /arranger type hobbyists seems smaller than the European markets in Germany, Holland and UK.
This is an oversimplification but essentially synths and workstation keyboards are bought by young people or for young people who want to emulate their pop stars. This is why I have often disagreed about what is needed in arrangers. Arrangers are the continuation of the home organ market and are largely used by the middle aged hobbyist, who has little interest in the 'modern' styles and advanced features, and in fact may be turned off by them. Of course that does not mean that there are not some people would not like this, but its not the core of the arranger market.
On the whole I largely disagree with the idea that the arranger market can be expanded by adding features that are more akin to workstations and synths for 2 reasons. First, it does not actually expand the market even it were successful, because all it does is shift people from one model to another, and if you are Yamaha who already plays in both markets that is not helpful. And second, no amount of additional features will actually make a difference in my view, because it does not emulate what the stars do, and  that is what drives choice among young people who are not interested in what they would perceive as fuddy duddy musical instruments regardless of what features they contain. 
MIke

     

[Joe H]

Mike,

While we are similar in age, I'm not traditional and I think I identify more with current musical trends than the past.  I was NEVER into organs. What you say may be true for our generation at large, but may not apply so much with people 40 or 45 years younger than ourselves.   You know... nothing stays the same forever.  I can accept your point of view, but there are other valid points of view as well. 

Yamaha as the largest musical instrument manufacturer in the world and seeks to support many cultures and musical expression on a global scale.  That is daunting to me.  Obviously the focus has been on expanding the arranger markets into Asia because it is such a huge market.  And I understand Yamaha will follow both traditional and current mainstream musical tastes as well .  So it can't cover all musical interests... like the many genre of Jazz, Funk, Reggae, or the many genre of EDM.  There is crossover music out there we can't even classify. 

So I've made the argument several times now that Yamaha should offer quality style making software and arranger - Cubase integration so those of us who are not so "mainstream" can create the styles we want to play without working at it so hard.

BTW... Texas is like its own country, New Mexico is like its own country, Louisiana is like its own country, Pennsylvania is like its own country, etc, etc, etc.  Yes, the USA is a big country.  New England has its own 400 years of history and the southwest has a completely different 400 year history, and how about Hawaii... it has almost nothing in common with the rest of the country.

Texas does NOT in anyway represent or reflect the tastes, trends, or culture of the United States of America. It is one of MANY diverse places and cultures of this place we call the USA.

Respectfully,
Joe H

[Jeff Hollande]

Hi Joe,

I have been 15 times in the USA and I absolutely agree with your statement.
Night and day difference between New York and North Carolina e.g.

Best regards from The Netherlands, Jeff